I am a mathematical infectious disease modeller and have particular expertise in building and calibrating compartmental models of disease transmission. I work with both deterministic compartmental, and individual-based models of transmission. I have particular expertise in modelling the impact of vaccination, including for prospective vaccines that are still in the development or clinical trials pipelines (for diseases such as COVID-19, malaria, and RSV). I have further experience and expertise in using modelling outputs to provide policy input for country- and global-level public health decision makers.
Fields of Research (FoR)Epidemiological modelling, Biological mathematics, Infectious diseases, Modelling and simulation, Respiratory diseases
As a mathematical epidemiologist, I work on mathematical models of infectious diseases, focussed on estimating the public health impact of new vaccines. The focus of my current research is to develop dynamic models to help inform longer term planning of ongoing COVID-19 vaccination programs in Australia and the broader region. To do this, I use mathematical models that account for the need for booster doses, properties and availability of...view more
As a mathematical epidemiologist, I work on mathematical models of infectious diseases, focussed on estimating the public health impact of new vaccines. The focus of my current research is to develop dynamic models to help inform longer term planning of ongoing COVID-19 vaccination programs in Australia and the broader region. To do this, I use mathematical models that account for the need for booster doses, properties and availability of current vaccines, the emergence of variants of concern, seasonality, and priority population groups.
Through my research, I aim to help guide ongoing country-level COVID-19 vaccine programs that align with the broader immunisation and health system priorities of individual countries. Sustainable and efficient COVID-19 vaccination policies will ultimately reduce the health and societal impact of COVID-19 for Australia and the region.
I also work on models for for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission and vaccination, to inform target product profiles for RSV vaccines. I have previously worked on estimating the public health impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine, supporting World Health Organization decision-making on the use of malaria vaccines in children, and on modelling the health impact of second-generation malaria vaccines in malaria endemic areas.
I am a member of the World Health Organization Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC). I was previously a Research Fellow at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London (UK), where I hold an Honorary Lectureship position.
Hogan AB. Mathematical modelling to support policy decisions on COVID-19 vaccination in Australia. NHMRC Investigator Grant (Emerging Leader 1). AU $650,000. (2022–2026)
Hogan AB et al. Modelling the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies. World Health Organization. US $80,000. (2021)
Campbell PT & Hogan AB. Determining the household-level impact of a maternal vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus using an individual-based model. Centre for Research Excellence in Math Modelling to Inform Public Policy, Australia. AU $9,600. (2017–2018)
Associate Investigator, modelling to inform the WHO Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme (MVIP). PATH. (2017–2021)
Hogan AB. Australian Mathematical Society Lift-Off Fellowship. AU $3,500. (2017)
PhD (Mathematical Epidemiology, Australian National University, 2017)
BSc (Applied Mathematics, Honours I, University of Sydney, 2009)
My Research Supervision
Areas of supervision
I am currently available to supervise Higher Degree Research (HDR) candidates, including for PhD programs. I have projects available related to dynamic population-level modelling of COVID-19 dynamics and vaccine impact; and modelling of future respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) impect. If you are interested in undertaking a PhD here at UNSW, please send me an email with your current CV and academic transcript.